变异系数在可靠性中的应用

对使用变异系数描述随机变量的离散程度进行分析,推导了可靠性工程中常用的4种概率分布的变异系数与分布参数之间的关系.以机械产品整机及其零部件不同失效模式的寿命变异系数的取值范围为实例,说明了变异系数在可靠性工程中的应用.     

A fluid queueing model for link travel time moments

We analyze the moments of the random time required for a vehicle to traverse a transportation network link of arbitrary length when its speed is governed by a random environment. The problem is motivated by stochastic transportation network applications in which the estimation of travel time moments is of great importance. We analyze this random time in a transient and asymptotic sense by employing results from the field of fluid queues. The results are demonstrated on two example problems. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

目标航路捷径波动与雷达误差关系研究

在靶场对武器装备的试验鉴定中,必须进行试验设计,目标和目标航路参数是试验参数设计中重点考虑的内容之一,目标航路捷径的波动则直接影响试验参数设计和考核结论。通过分析武器装备中雷达误差来源,找出目标航路捷径波动与雷达误差之间的函数关系,并计算推导出航路捷径允许波动范围的数学模型;以靶场试验实例给出了航路捷径波动确定的基本原则,为靶场试验设计提供有价值的参考方法。     

Rectangles algorithm for generating normal variates

We propose an algorithm for generating normal random variates that is based on the acceptance–rejection method and uses a piecewise majorizing function. The piecewise function has 2048 equal‐area pieces, 2046 of which are constant, and the two extreme pieces are curves that majorize the tails. The proposed algorithm has not only good performance from correlation induction perspective, but also works well from a speed perspective. It is faster than the inversion method by Odeh and Evans and most other methods. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法

针对杂波环境中的目标检测跟踪问题,提出一种基于随机有限集理论的多传感器目标联合检测跟踪算法。算法将目标状态和量测描述为随机集合,建立考虑目标出现、目标保持、目标消失等情况的目标状态随机有限集模型,以及考虑漏检和虚警的多传感器量测随机有限集模型。将目标的联合检测跟踪问题构建为目标状态集合的贝叶斯最优估计问题,并基于随机有限集理论对该贝叶斯估计算法的递推表达式进行严格理论推导。采用序贯蒙特卡罗技术实现算法的递推滤波。仿真结果验证了该算法的有效性以及算法相对于传统基于数据关联算法的性能优势。     

机械抖动偏频激光陀螺静态测角方法

阐述采用机械抖动偏频激光陀螺进行静态角度测量的原理,分析测角随机误差与激光陀螺角随机游走系数、测量时间的关系,通过转台分度误差实验验证了测角随机误差公式。采用排列互比法对测角系统误差和转台分度误差进行分离。实验与理论分析表明,静态测角方法具有良好的环境适应性和稳定性,测角随机误差优于0.26″,系统误差优于1″。最后分析了进一步减小测角随机误差和系统误差的措施。     

分布函数充要条件的另一种证明

对函数F(x)为分布函数的充要条件进行了证明:必要性的证明直接采用概率论中传统的证法;而充分性的证明则从随机变量特征函数φ(t)出发,利用特征函数的充要条件来证明分布函数F(x)的充分条件,从而避开了用实变函数中的测度理论证明充分性的传统证法。为分布函数充分条件的证明提供了一种比较简单和实用的证明方法。     

飞机结构疲劳可靠度贝叶斯组合预测

在实际工程中,常常需要利用模型去描述和分析问题。然而模型亦存在不确定性,即可能存在多个描述同一现象的模型,例如多个疲劳分析的模型。针对飞机结构的疲劳可靠性问题,提出在考虑三种裂纹扩展模型下基于贝叶斯公式的疲劳可靠度组合预测方法。针对不同应力水平下飞机结构试件的裂纹扩展数据建立了三种随机裂纹扩展模型;在考虑模型参数不确定性条件下,采用贝叶斯模型平均方法对三种模型进行组合;基于组合模型分析结构的可靠度。所提方法在分析飞机结构疲劳可靠度上,采用了组合模型,能够最大限度保障结果的稳定性。此外,考虑了模型参数的不确定性,能够得到更为合理的裂纹扩展预测分布和可靠度预测值。给出的实例及分析结果表明所提方法可行。     

现役船体结构可靠性评估理论研究现状及展望

作为现役船体结构可靠性评估的关键技术,可靠性评估理论直接决定了可靠性评估结果的有效性和置信度。从可靠性评估理论的计算原理、度量指标计算及工程应用等方面阐述了传统可靠性评估理论和非概率可靠性评估理论的发展历程及研究现状,分析、总结了各可靠性评估理论在现役船体结构可靠性中的优势及不足,给出了今后开展相关研究的展望,并指出了现役船体结构可靠性研究的重点。     

Random disambiguation paths for traversing a mapped hazard field

We consider the problem of safely and swiftly navigating through a spatial arrangement of potential hazard detections in which each detection has associated with it a probability that the detection is indeed a true hazard. When in close proximity to a detection, we assume the ability—for a cost—to determine whether or not the hazard is real. Our approach to this problem involves a new object, the random disambiguation path (RDP), which is a curve‐valued random variable parametrized by a binary tree with particular properties. We prove an admissibility result showing that there is positive probability that the use of an RDP reduces the expected traversal length compared to the conventional shortest zero‐risk path, and we introduce a practically computable additive‐constant approximation to the optimal RDP. The theoretical considerations are complemented by simulation and example. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005